Romney Ignores SC, Keeps Frontrunner Status
Cain, Gingrich, Perry all more involved in S.C. ground game
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Gov. Mitt Romney and businessman Herman Cain sit atop recent primary polls in South Carolina, but that’s about all they have in common here.
Cain set up camp in South Carolina in October. His modest headquarters in West Columbia, in the same office Gov. Nikki Haley used during the Republican gubernatorial primary in 2010, is one of several footprints across the state.
Romney has one S.C. office, but little additional presence. Despite the state’s history of picking the eventual Republican nominee, Romney has focused on New Hampshire and other states, making only three stops in the Palmetto State thus far. His wife submitted his candidate filing form for him.
Cain held a 10-point lead on Romney a week ago, when he earned the support of 33 percent of pollsters. This week, Romney is back in front, narrowly over Cain, as nearly 70 percent of Republicans admit they don't know who they are supporting.
Even Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, who stayed afloat with 15 percent and 9 percent respectively in the Rasmussen polling, have established a significant ground presence. Gingrich, who has the state's largest pool of operatives, is set to open a Greenville headquarters on Saturday, before the first nationally televised debate of the primary season takes place at Wofford College in Spartanburg.
But fewer than 75 days before the Palmetto State's Jan. 21 primary, with Cain battling sexual harassment allegations and Romney continuing to run an error-free campaign, two questions remain: Can Romney succeed in South Carolina without courting South Carolinians in person?
And perhaps more importantly, does he need a strong performance in South Carolina to win the Republican nomination?
"I don't think he can win here," said Robert Oldendick, political science professor at the University of South Carolina in Columbia. "Given the likely GOP electorate, I don't know who is going to beat him, but the conservative front-running candidate that emerges out of New Hampshire and Iowa has the most likelihood for success in South Carolina."
Danielle Vinson, a political science professor at Furman University in Greenville, said Romney likely chose to use his resources elsewhere because South Carolina voters were not going to be his base even if he had a greater presence here.
“South Carolina has a large Tea Party population and a large evangelical population, neither of which have been particularly supportive of Romney in the past,” Vinson said.
“This was never a state that he was going to do fantastic in, so for him it just comes down to cost-benefit. Is he really going to get the votes if he puts in effort here or is he more likely to get votes in states that he’s likely to win big?”
Vinson said she couldn’t remember any other national frontrunners neglecting South Carolina like Romney has, but she said he still had time to make himself more of a presence.
“It’s always risky when a candidate decides not to spend much time in a key state, but he’s still got plenty of time to get on the ground in South Carolina,” Vinson said.
“His campaign has gotten so much attention nationally that it’s not like folks in South Carolina don’t know Mitt Romney.”
Vinson said Romney would likely adjust his South Carolina strategy based on the success of his opponents.
“If Cain and Perry start surging and improving in South Carolina, maybe Romney will spend more time here,” Vinson said. “If they don’t, he’ll probably take a decent showing here and move on.”
Though Oldendick and Vinson agreed that Romney could win the nomination without winning South Carolina, Oldendick said Romney could not afford a repeat of his fourth-place finish in the 2008 S.C. primary.
"He can't finish fourth," Oldendick said. "If he finishes a respectable second and we assume he wins New Hampshire and does well in Iowa, he'll be fine."
Ultimately, Oldendick said, South Carolina voters want a more conservative candidate than Romney to represent them. A conservative Myrtle Beach blogger is a leader in a movement to elect anyone besides Romney.
But if Romney stands the best chance to beat President Obama, that could be enough.
"The Republicans in this state want Obama out so bad that they would vote for Romney," Oldendick said. "He's not going to be damaged coming out of here if he finishes second, but again, there will be virtually no enthusiasm for him as a front-runner."
Dianne Cornett, a conservative from Columbia, summed up that sentiment.
"When it comes right down to it, we're going to vote for who we think is going to win," Cornett said. "Whoever it is, even if it's Mitt, we'll vote for them because we need to put in a conservative president."
Editor's Note: This version CORRECTS the original article which stated that Romney had no South Carolina office. In fact, he has one office in Columbia. The author regrets the error.
Joe
4:43 pm on Wednesday, November 9, 2011
If SC votes for Romney they deserve what they get!
Mimi
5:24 pm on Wednesday, November 9, 2011
If SC votes for any of the candidates running in the Republican primary they deserve what they get.
Joe
6:55 pm on Wednesday, November 9, 2011
If AMerica votes in Obama they are a nation of MORONS!
Henry
6:59 pm on Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Excellent article. Though I thrive on any moment the gop entangles itself the writing is on the wall for Romney and for the Republican party. I don't think they should wait too long before they get behind the "rombomb" though.
anthony giacomo
9:17 pm on Wednesday, November 9, 2011
I think the first Mitt Romney in the 3rd parallel world would disagree with the Mr. Mitt Romney that resides on the planet Saturn and would have the same views as Mr Romney who lives in the front room of his house, but not the Mitt who lives in the basement and the Romney who had a sex change.
stanley seigler
12:17 am on Thursday, November 10, 2011
@joe
re: If AMerica votes in Obama they are a nation of MORONS!
COMMENT
short list of BOs accomplishement...you might disagee they are positive...but what has the GOPtpers done...
Obama has overhauled the food safety system
Advanced women’s rights in the work place
Ended Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell (DADT) in our military
Stopped defending DOMA in court.
Passed the Hate Crimes bill.
Appointed two pro-choice women to the Supreme Court.
Expanded access to medical care and provided subsidies for people who can’t afford it.
Expanded the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP)
Fixed the preexisting conditions travesty [and rescissions] in health insurance.
Invested in clean energy.
Overhauled the credit card industry, making it much more consumer-friendly.
While Dodd-Frank bill was weak in many respects, it was still an extremely worthwhile start at re-regulating the financial sector.
He created a Elizabeth Warren’s dream agency: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
He’s done a lot for veterans
He got help for people whose health was injured during the clean-up after the 9/11 attacks.
http://obamaachievements.org/
Tonto
12:38 am on Thursday, November 10, 2011
Communism doesn't work. Proven over and over. Obama is a communist (aka socialist) Nobama = No jobs - more corporations = More jobs.
stanley seigler
1:05 am on Thursday, November 10, 2011
@tonto
re: "Communism doesn't work. Proven over and over. Obama is a communist (aka socialist) Nobama = No jobs - more corporations = More jobs."
COMMENT
sigh...if you want to provide references to sustain BO is a communist...and your meaningless, simplistic, "equals" crap we can have a discussion...but bet you have none...
also you need to look up definitions of communism and socialism...they are not the same...
you do the TP, GOP or whatever party you support, yourself and our country a disservice...with your unsubstantiated comments...and beliefs...
Tonto
1:30 am on Thursday, November 10, 2011
I should have made some spelling errors for you to talk down to me better. Its the economy stupid :) Communists are the historically greediest rulers known by the way.
stanley seigler
2:15 am on Thursday, November 10, 2011
@tonto
re: Communists are the historically greediest rulers known by the way.
just another opine...maybe correct...but has nothing to with your baseless claim BO is a communist...in general, most of your comments do not sustain whatever your claims are...
agree it is the economy...which BTW performs better under DEM administrations and policies than under hoover, bush, GOP trickle down, voodoo economics...
Tonto
9:11 am on Thursday, November 10, 2011
Your baseless assumptions theorize that trickle down President Robin Hood and his Merry Men will rob from the rich and give to you is bunk. Robin Hood kept most of the goodies for himself :) You can see that most people who are slowly swallowing communist doctrine still think they are socialist - LOL :) What do you think of "socialist" Greece, France, Portugal, Spain, etc., etc. ?
harry
9:22 am on Thursday, November 10, 2011
BUT OBAMA SAYS WE CAN SPEND OURSELVES OUT OF DEBT.....WHAT IS IT YOU DON'T GET? LOL
Tonto
9:45 am on Thursday, November 10, 2011
Nobama will think of something even though we have run out of ink, paper, and the printing press is broken down :)
stanley seigler
12:03 pm on Thursday, November 10, 2011
@Tonto
re: 'trickle down is bunk...Robin Hood kept most of the goodies for himself..."socialist" Greece, France, Portugal, Spain, etc., etc.?'
"trickle down" bunk is the GOP party line to justify their failed economic policies (eg, 1929, 2008)...ie, give more to the 1% and it will trickle down to po folks and the biblical least...it all trickle up.
tonto goes from one unproven opine to another too cute by 1/2 opine that has nothing do to with his original contention that BO is a communist...and that communism is aka socialism.
if there is support BO is a communist and if provided...i might not vote for him...one just saying it doesn't make it so
what do i think of greece, etcetc...currently they are failing...does this make BO a communist (tonto's original premise)...
what does tonto think of germany, canada, brazil, chili, china, india, finland, norway, sweden, etcetc...
BO is not a socialist and neither am i...that one, eg, wants healthcare for all; a fair and appropriate public education; and a safety net for the least...does not make one a socialist....
it makes one a christian...tho it didnt make me one...
time long past to stop quoting party line sound bites and work to solve our real problems.
Tonto
8:27 pm on Thursday, November 10, 2011
Stanley S. you are a sheep being herded from pasture to pasture by liberal media. Occupy is over and the herd will move to a new distraction away from the failed president soon. The sheep will be herded from distraction pasture to distraction pasture right up to the election. If you are lucky you might get a bit part in Michael Moores new "B" movie coming out next year. Smile for the cameras :)
stanley seigler
1:47 pm on Friday, November 11, 2011
@Tonto
re: the failed president
see short list of BO's accomplishement at: stanley seigler 12:17am on Thursday, November 10, 2011 on this thread.
and there would be more if GOP-tpers' JOB#1 were not to make BO a one term president...GOPs time/energy would be better spent focusing on JOBs for we the people...BTW GOPs will fail at their JOB#1...
as mentioned: ad hominems and too cute by 1/2 comments add little to a discussion...and are mostly used by those who dont know or have the facts...
help this sheep (poor lil lamb who has gone astray) understand which liberal media references i used are incorrect and hearding me from one pasture...etcetc.
baa, baa, baa