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Haley's GOP Primary Play Lacks Power Punch

With a determined core of anyone-but-Mitt GOP voters in South Carolina Gov. Haley's endorsement of Romney likely to sway very few, and may upset her base.

 

The first female and minority governor of South Carolina, swept into office by a wave of Republican energy in a mid-term election, was supposed to be the top prize.

Gov. Nikki Haley's endorsement was coveted by numerous presidential candidates. She appeared at events with Rep. Michele Bachmann and Gov. Rick Perry. She welcomed Bachmann, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Gov. Mitt Romney's wife to spend the night in the governor's mansion.

In the end, after GOP candidates spent months campaigning on her pet issues, Haley returned the endorsement favor in December to Romney, who backed her early in her 2010 gubernatorial bid.

But what good did it do?

While polls that showed Gingrich leading the SC race back in December now put Romney comfortably in front, experts say it had nothing to do with Haley's backing.

In fact, if anything, the decision could make her vulnerable for conservative GOP attacks in the future.

"It might help Romney with the truly undecided voters," said Robert Oldendick, a University of South Carolina political science professor.

"That group that doesn't pay close attention to politics and isn't going to take the time to research the candidates themselves. They might look around and see who is supporting who, and (Haley's) endorsement may help them make up their minds, but that's a very small percentage of voters, maybe 1 to 2 percent."

Oldendick is not alone among political observers to largely dismiss the relevance of political endorsements, even as candidates love to tout winning the support of various elected officials come election-time.

"There was a lot of speculation about what her endorsement would mean for any candidate, even before she was elected," Winthrop University Political Science Professor Aldolphus Belk Jr. said.

However, Belk adds, that while Haley's endorsement of Romney may help him pull in a few more votes in South Carolina, the effect will be minimal.

"The center has been hard to read," Belk said. "People are searching for a Romney alternative and they've not found one yet."

Belk said despite Romney's early endorsement for Haley in 2010, her fortunes in her own Republican primary campaign seemed to turn with former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's endorsement.

"They (Romney's campaign) may have been hoping for a similar impact (to Palin's endorsement) coming from Haley's endorsement of Romney," Belk said.

But Haley may have lost some of her luster to many in the GOP and in the Tea Party, which provided staunch support for Haley in 2010.

Haley has had her share of controversy since taking office — purportedly, conservative activists are campaigning to build support for recalling Haley — and her approval rating sits at an all-time low.

But she still remains popular among many in the Tea Party, even if they disapprove of her support of Romney.

"I still support Haley, she can endorse whoever she wants as long as she doesn't try to tie that endorsement to the Tea Party," Allen Olson said.

Olson, a leader of the Columbia Tea Party, left his position with the group in September when he publicly came out in support of Gingrich, and continues to work with the campaign as a volunteer. He stepped down because the Columbia Tea Party has a policy of not endorsing any of the candidates.

"I still support Gov. Haley," Olson said. "For personal reasons I would rather have her for Newt Gingrich, but I understand her reasons, Romney supported her."

Not all Tea Party activists are as understanding though.

Spartanburg Tea Party organizer Karen Martin said she is still waiting for a good explanation from Haley as to why she supports Romney.

"A lot of people are baffled by it," Martin said. "We still haven't gotten a good reason from her ... it sounded like she was reading from Romney's script when she made her endorsement."

Martin said 99 percent of the Tea Party sees Romney as the worst-possible candidate in the GOP field. And to have Haley, who was backed so faithfully by the Tea Party, support him is a betrayal.

Martin doesn't know of anyone in the Tea Party planning a primary challenge against Haley in 2014. But she does see a possibility.

"We're not going to primary Haley," Martin said. "Prior to the endorsement I heard unwavering support (for Haley). But now, if another credible conservative candidate emerges this might drive some support to that person."

Whether she is repaying Romney's endorsement or if Haley, like many in the Republican establishment, believes Romney is best situated to defeat President Barack Obama, her reason for supporting Romney hinges on his electability.

"Governor Haley understands as well as anyone how important it is to beat President Obama - his administration's support for unions nearly cost us Boeing jobs, his health care mandates will bust state budgets, and his opposition to Voter ID and illegal immigration reform is an affront to the 10th amendment," Haley spokesman Rob Godfrey wrote in an email to Patch.com.

"The governor is happy to do what she can to support the person she believes can best beat President Obama and get the economy moving again."

However Martin doesn't buy the argument that Romeny can beat Obama, and said he is a failed candidate. She would prefer the GOP to nominate someone who has never been a politician.

"I wanted someone who could re-energize people, not the same crowd that does and says the same old things," Martin said. "I really wanted someone who had never run before."

Whether Haley faces any blowback from her Romney endorsement in South Carolina may depend on how the rest of the election plays out. If Romney wins South Carolina and the GOP nomination and cannot beat Obama, some people may hold it against Haley.

But overall both Olson and Martin think Haley's support for Romney will have little impact, and agree with the assessment of USC's Oldendick and Winthrop's Belk, that only a very small percentage of S.C. primary voters will look to endorsements to make up their minds about the candidates.

"For the people that don't pay close attention to politics, that endorsement may sway some of them," Martin said. "But not anyone who is involved in politics."

"On Tea Party voters it will have absolutely zero impact," Olson said.

Both Martin and Olson do see potential for the endorsement to hurt Haley if Romney falters, however Belk and Odendick point out that Haley won't face voters again for a long time.

"She still has time to recover from some of the mistakes and missteps her administration has made," Belk said.

The endorsement can help Romney in the immediate term Belk said, but the impact will likely be negligible.

Despite Romney leading in most polls throughout the campaign, he has not been able to pull away from the pack, though he gained some distance on his competitors in South Carolina in several recent polls.

Unless Romney pulls out a big win in South Carolina, Belk said, 2012 could be very similar to 2008 with a long drawn out primary fight such as occurred between Sen. John McCain, former Gov. Mike Huckabee and Romney on the Republican side and between Obama and then Sen. Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side.

Related Topics: Mitt Romney, Nikki Haley, SC GOP, SC GOP Primary, and SC primary

George Sibbett

12:21 pm on Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Do the Tea Party people stand firm on anything anymore? I think not. If they

vote for Romney after his Romneycare/Obamacare, they are a fraud

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stanley seigler

1:24 pm on Wednesday, January 11, 2012

@PATCH: The first female and minority governor of South Carolina, swept into office by a wave of Republican energy in a mid-term election, was supposed to be the top prize.

COMMENT
wondering if being female/minority has anything to do with her current disapproval...other than my strongly disagreeing with her politics...she seems to be doing as good...or better than, most GOP gov's..but,

not good as DEM's moonbeam in CA...besides;

she's cute (just fooling)

BTW her Sikh background is a plus...sikhs are more christian than christians...(have a problem with their treatment of women)

"Sikhism preaches a message of Devotion and remembrance of God at all times, truthful living, equality of mankind and denounces superstitions and blind rituals"

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Andy Faris

1:26 pm on Wednesday, January 11, 2012

When quoting college professors who pontificate on politics, a short disclaimer is in order. Simply put an "R" or "D" by the name so dumb people ( like me) know who you call on to make your case against Goveror Haley and we can judge the credibility of the aurhor. Seems to me there must be some credible source you could quote on the other side, ( Rebublican). Andy Faris

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Prudence Russell

10:52 am on Wednesday, February 1, 2012

NIKKI HALEY - just because you run around with the WHITES....dine around with the WHITES....does not mean you are one of them. Think again. YOU ARE OF INDIA DESCENT..have that cross your mind? YOU ARE AS BLACK AS THOSE BLACKS YOU DESPISE.

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stanley seigler

12:26 pm on Wednesday, February 1, 2012

is there any doubt racism is alive and well...progress made..."miles to go..."

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Tonto

12:07 am on Thursday, February 2, 2012

Calm down Stanley. Racism has always been alive and well and will always be alive and well. Its called human nature. The only way to eliminate racism is to get rid of people.

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JoSCh

11:07 am on Thursday, February 2, 2012

Or other races! Final solution, am I right Tonto!

/leaping whitey high five attempted, missed embarrassingly

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stanley seigler

12:27 pm on Thursday, February 2, 2012

@JoSCh: "...Final solution..."

hate to make any ref to the nazis...their evil, "man inhumanity to man", is orders of magnitude beyond anything one can imagine...

anyhow:

we cant accept racism...just because it's human (inhuman) nature...we have to change human nature...and; i dont belive it's that much a part of our DNA...

we have and are progressing...we have to recognize the evil of those (who know better) and still use the race card to improve their profits (eg, the kochs) and...further divide our country.

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Tonto

6:22 pm on Thursday, February 2, 2012

The very best people can do is to try to control things like greed, racist thoughts, over eating, telling lies, or judging. Its all human nature. Many like to use racism to squash others when they have nothing else. It makes them feel or imply they are on a higher plateau.

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JoSCh

8:27 am on Friday, February 3, 2012

I don't think that going through life suppressing greed, racism, gluttony, or lying is normal or human nature. Maybe you should talk to someone, seriously.

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Tonto

10:03 am on Friday, February 3, 2012

Ok, greater then thou, human nature plays no roll in peoples lives. Racism, THE SKY IS FALLING, look at me! I'm color blind and pure as rain! Racism, the sky is falling! thats all you got isin't it?

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stanley seigler

11:29 pm on Friday, February 3, 2012

it all does with racism...when will an ever move real issues., be dis cussed...Cod's lifetime maybe...

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stanley seigler

4:44 pm on Saturday, February 4, 2012

CORRECTION and edits
as incorretly posted:
it all does with racism...when will an ever move real issues., be dis cussed...Cod's lifetime maybe

as corrected and edited:

it's too often about racism...when will, if ever, real issues be discussed...God's lifetime maybe...

that is when will wise guys (eg, the koch's) not use lingering racist emotions for personal and political gain (eg, voterID laws)

George Grace

10:57 pm on Thursday, February 2, 2012

I've been thinking of Mitt romney's comments recently.
"let detoit go bankrupt," "the housing crisis has to hit bottom before it can come back" etc
It dawned on me that Mitt Romney sounds just like Herbert Hoover in 1932. Hoover believed the economy would rebound on its own if left alone too.
FDR took positive govt action, Obama does too.
It's a shame Obama has to fight Boehner, Cantor and the Repub congress to get anything passed.
But his - Obama's - ideas are progressive. If we can give him a solid majority in both Houses this fall, he will really progress.
We don't need another Herbert Hoover in the WH in 2012.

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George Grace

11:07 pm on Thursday, February 2, 2012

Pretty good summary, from a Politico posting.
"Cerry H Klaver, if you're refering to gitmo...who give a flying...F
Dear Republicans...MY PRESIDENT: 1. Got Osama Bin Laden...check. 2. Unemployment rate 8.5%...check. 3. 1.6 million jobs created with no GOP help...check 4. 22 months of job and economic growth with no help...check. 5. Ended war in Iraq ...check. 6. DADT repeal...check. 7. Not one tax hike in 3 years....check. 8. Brought out of racism in the GOP...check. 9. Still carries 80% of the black vote...che......ck. 10. Same wife for 15 years with no extra marital affairs...check. 11. Saved auto industry and 1.5 million jobs...check. 12. Assisted in ousting Khaddafi...check 13. Only active President to receive Nobel Peace prize while in office...check. 14. Mortgage modification to prevent home owners from losing their home...check. 15. STILL fighting for middle class families...check. 16. Reform Affordable healthcare...check. Listen to the REAL facts, people. Despite what the GOP would have you believe the President has been doing these things and more for us his public. Obama 2012- Re-post to support!!!."

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Tonto

10:08 am on Friday, February 3, 2012

Keep talkin somebody gotta speak for Oblamer. He can't run on his lies. Liberal news media will do the talkin for him. They need all the help they can get though......you go comrade. If Oblamer is doin so great why do you have to keep explaining how wonderfull he is?

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